U.S. military
Operation Epic Fury Begins
Major U.S. combat operations against Iran begin while nuclear diplomacy was still active.
Source: U.S. Department of War ↗February 2026
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Iran / commercial shipping
HORMUZ CLOSED #1
Iran says navigation is closed after the opening attacks. Major tanker owners and energy companies suspend transit.
Source: Reuters ↗March 2026
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White HouseWIN CLAIM #1 / 52
Victory Release
“Victory in action.”
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Pete HegsethWIN CLAIM #2 / 52
“Destroyed. Defeated.”
Hegseth says Iran’s air force is “no more” and its navy is “combat ineffective, decimated, destroyed, defeated.”
Source: Pentagon transcript ↗Donald TrumpWIN CLAIM #3 / 52
Roundtable Remarks
War performance: “about a 15” out of 10.
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Donald TrumpWIN CLAIM #4 / 52
Air Force One Remarks
“Winning the war by a lot.”“Decimated their whole evil empire.”
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Donald TrumpWIN CLAIM #5 / 52
“Very Complete, Pretty Much”
Trump says the war is “very complete, pretty much,” adding that Iran has no navy, communications or air force.
Source: Reuters ↗10
Donald TrumpWIN CLAIM #6 / 52
Truth Social Claim
Ten mine-laying vessels “completely destroyed.”
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Donald TrumpWIN CLAIM #7 / 52
“We Won”
Trump says “we won,” that “in the first hour it was over,” and that the United States had “virtually destroyed Iran.”
Source: Reuters ↗12
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Gen. Dan Caine / PentagonWIN CLAIM #8 / 52
Navy “Combat Ineffective”
The Pentagon says Iran’s navy had been rendered “combat ineffective” in less than two weeks.
Source: Pentagon transcript ↗Donald TrumpWIN CLAIM #9 / 52
Joint Base Andrews Remarks
“A lot of big wins today.”
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Donald TrumpWIN CLAIM #10 / 52
Air Force One Remarks
“Essentially defeated Iran.”“Taken out their air force.”“Taken out their navy.”“No air defense whatsoever.”
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White HouseWIN CLAIM #11 / 52
“Overwhelming Success”
The White House calls the operation an “overwhelming success” and says Iran’s air and naval capabilities were “obliterated.”
Source: White House release ↗20
Donald TrumpWIN CLAIM #12 / 52
Won — But Not Enough
Trump says, “We’ve already won in many ways, but we haven’t won enough.”
Source: Reuters ↗Donald TrumpWIN CLAIM #13 / 52
Winding-Down Statement
“Very close to meeting our objectives.”Considering “winding down.”
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Donald TrumpWIN CLAIM #14 / 52
Airport Remarks
“Almost all points of agreement.”Meeting “very, very soon.”“End up with settling this.”“Something that’s going to happen.”
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U.S. and Iran
Ceasefire Proposal Rejected
Iran rejects a U.S. ceasefire proposal and issues a counterproposal as both sides dispute whether meaningful talks are even underway.
Source: Associated Press ↗26
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Donald TrumpWIN CLAIM #15 / 52
Investment Summit Remarks
“Closer than ever.”
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Donald TrumpWIN CLAIM #16 / 52
Air Force One Remarks
“The navy’s gone.”“The air force is gone.”
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Donald TrumpWIN CLAIM #17 / 52
Truth Social Post
A deal would probably be “shortly reached.”
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Donald TrumpWIN CLAIM #18 / 52
White House Remarks
“Leaving very soon.”“Two to three weeks.”
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April 2026
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Donald TrumpWIN CLAIM #19 / 52
Address to the Nation
“Swift, decisive, overwhelming victories.”“Iran’s navy is GONE.”“Their air force is in ruins.”
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Donald TrumpWIN CLAIM #20 / 52
Ceasefire Statement
“Met and exceeded all Military objectives.”“Very far along” toward an agreement.“Almost all” points agreed.
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U.S. and Iran
Major Combat Pauses
After 38 days of major combat operations, a temporary ceasefire takes hold.
Source: White House release ↗Pete HegsethWIN CLAIM #21 / 52
“Decisive Military Victory”
Hegseth declares a decisive victory and says Iran’s military was “combat ineffective for years to come.”
Source: Pentagon transcript ↗White HouseWIN CLAIM #22 / 52
Navy “Obliterated”
The White House says Iran’s navy “has been obliterated” as it celebrates the ceasefire.
Source: White House release ↗9
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United States and Iran
Face-to-Face Talks Fail
Historic face-to-face talks in Islamabad end without an agreement. A U.S. blockade follows the next day.
Source: Associated Press timeline ↗Donald TrumpWIN CLAIM #23 / 52
Joint Base Andrews Remarks
“Their military is destroyed.”“Their whole navy is underwater.”
source ↗
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U.S. Central Command
U.S. NAVAL BLOCKADE BEGINS
At 10 a.m. ET, U.S. forces begin blocking maritime traffic entering or leaving Iranian ports. CENTCOM says ships merely transiting Hormuz to non-Iranian ports will not be impeded.
Source: U.S. Central Command ↗14
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Donald TrumpWIN CLAIM #24 / 52
South Lawn Remarks
“Very close to making a deal.”“Looking very good.”A “successful negotiation.”“Agreed to almost everything.”“We’ll have that over with.”“Very close to a deal.”
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Donald TrumpWIN CLAIM #25 / 52
Truth Social — 6:27 a.m.
“This process should go very quickly.”
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Donald TrumpWIN CLAIM #26 / 52
Truth Social — 7:13 a.m.
“Hormuz Strait situation is over.”
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Donald TrumpWIN CLAIM #27 / 52
Truth Social — 7:33 a.m.
“A GREAT AND BRILLIANT DAY.”
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Donald TrumpWIN CLAIM #28 / 52
Truth Social — 7:58 a.m.
“JOB WELL DONE.”
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Donald TrumpWIN CLAIM #29 / 52
Truth Social — 8:25 p.m.
“ANYONE SICK OF WINNING YET?”
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Donald TrumpWIN CLAIM #30 / 52
Turning Point Remarks
“This process should go very quickly.”Hormuz “almost over.”
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Donald TrumpWIN CLAIM #31 / 52
Air Force One Remarks
“Some pretty good news.”Public would hear “very soon.”“Know very shortly.”
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Iran / Donald Trump
HORMUZ REOPENS — BLOCKADE REMAINS
Iran announces the strait is open for commercial passage. Trump calls it “completely open,” while saying the U.S. naval blockade will remain in full force as it pertains to Iran.
Source: American Presidency Project ↗18
Iran
HORMUZ CLOSED #2
Less than a day after reopening the strait, Iran closes or tightly restricts it again and cites the continuing U.S. blockade of Iranian ports.
Source: AP / Al Jazeera ↗19
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Donald TrumpWIN CLAIM #32 / 52
CNBC Interview
“End up with a great deal.”
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May 2026
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Donald TrumpWIN CLAIM #33 / 52
Departure Remarks
Iran had “no military left, essentially.”
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Donald TrumpWIN CLAIM #34 / 52
Truth Social Post
“Tremendous Military Success.”“Great Progress.”Toward a “Complete and Final Agreement.”
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Donald TrumpWIN CLAIM #35 / 52
Reflecting Pool Remarks
A deal “could happen any day.”“Knocked the hell out of them.”
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Donald TrumpWIN CLAIM #36 / 52
Truth Social Post
A deal “will be made.”
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Donald TrumpWIN CLAIM #37 / 52
White House Picnic
“Finished with that very quickly.”
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Donald TrumpWIN CLAIM #38 / 52
Truth Social Post
Agreement “largely negotiated.”Deal to be “announced shortly.”
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June 2026
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Donald TrumpWIN CLAIM #39 / 52
Executive Order Remarks
Negotiation “going very well.”Could happen “over the weekend.”
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Donald TrumpWIN CLAIM #40 / 52
White House Remarks
“Great settlement with Iran.”Signing “soon, very soon.”
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Donald Trump
A Deal Is Announced
Trump says a deal to end the war has been reached, although the agreement has not yet been finalized.
Source: Reuters ↗Donald Trump / administrationWIN CLAIM #41 / 52
Deal Reported Near
Agreement to end the war was “close.”
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United States and Iran
MOU Signed
A 14-point memorandum of understanding formalizes the ceasefire, reopens the Strait of Hormuz and begins a new diplomatic track.
Source: MOU text / reporting ↗United States and Iran
HORMUZ REOPENS #2
The 14-point MOU provides for reopening the strait; industry prepares for broader traffic to resume.
Source: MOU / Reuters ↗18
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Iran — disputed by U.S.
HORMUZ CLOSURE CLAIM #3
Iran’s Revolutionary Guards declare the strait shut. U.S. officials dispute a complete closure and say some traffic continues.
Source: Reuters ↗21
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Trump administrationWIN CLAIM #42 / 52
Administration Policy Statement
The April hostilities had “terminated.”The MOU was “ending the fighting on every front.”
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United States and Iran
HORMUZ REOPENS #3
The two sides agree to stand down while technical talks continue, and a U.S. official says vessels can move freely.
Source: Reuters ↗29
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July 2026
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Donald Trump
Deal — Or “Finish the Job”
Trump says the United States will either reach a deal with Iran or “finish the job.”
Source: Reuters ↗7
U.S. and Iran
MOU Breaks Down
Iranian attacks on merchant vessels and renewed U.S.-Iran hostilities end the ceasefire period and expose the MOU’s collapse.
Source: Associated Press ↗Renewed attacks
HORMUZ EFFECTIVELY CLOSED #4
Attacks on commercial vessels restart the conflict and begin a fourth effective closure period; traffic later slows to a trickle.
Source: Reuters ↗8
Donald Trump
Trump: Ceasefire Is “Over”
After the July 7 exchange of attacks, Trump declares the ceasefire “over,” while saying negotiations could still continue.
Source: Associated Press timeline ↗9
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U.S. Senate hearing
The Earlier Claim Is Challenged
Lawmakers confront Hegseth with his earlier “destroyed” and “combat-ineffective” claims while Iranian attacks and U.S. casualties continue.
Source: Associated Press ↗22
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United States and Iran
U.S.–Iran Attacks Pause Again
After 13 nights of renewed U.S. airstrikes, the Pentagon suspends the campaign. Iran says it will halt its own attacks as long as the U.S. pause holds.
Source: Reuters ↗27
Donald Trump / IranWIN CLAIM #43 / 52
“Good Talks” — Iran Says Not So Fast
Trump says “good talks” and “very friendly negotiations” are underway and that a deal could happen. Iran says reports that it requested negotiations are “fabricated” and that messages are still passing through mediators.
Source: Reuters ↗28
Donald TrumpWIN CLAIM #44 / 52
“Very Good Talks” — With Threats Attached
Trump says the United States has had “some very good talks” with Iran while repeating threats to strike Pickaxe Mountain, bridges and power plants if no deal is made.
Source: Reuters ↗29
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AP–NORC poll
Most Americans Say the War Was Not Worth It
About two-thirds of U.S. adults say the Iran war has not been worth fighting. Trump’s approval rating on handling Iran stands at 28 percent.
Source: Associated Press ↗31
August 2026
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Donald TrumpWIN CLAIM #45 / 52
Parameters of Another Deal
Trump says Middle Eastern allies have reached the parameters of a deal that would reopen Hormuz and end Iran’s nuclear threat. He says Iran must “rapidly make a DEAL.” Iran offers no immediate public confirmation.
Source: Associated Press ↗Donald Trump
Planned U.S. Attack Canceled — Again
Trump cancels a planned major attack to give the claimed deal more time, creating another strike pause tied to unfinished negotiations.
Source: Associated Press ↗2
Donald TrumpWIN CLAIM #46 / 52
Talks Monday — No Deadline
Trump says negotiations will begin Monday afternoon but provides no venue, participants or deadline. The renewed talks have not produced a comprehensive agreement.
Source: Reuters ↗Shipping conditions
HORMUZ STILL LARGELY CLOSED
Despite another strike pause and another promised round of talks, the Strait remains largely closed and traffic is still far below prewar levels. This continues closure period #4 rather than starting a new one.
Source: Reuters ↗3
Donald Trump / IranWIN CLAIM #47 / 52
“Talks Are Going On Right Now” — Iran Says No
Trump says talks with Iran are “going on right now” and calls the moment Iran’s “last chance” to make a deal. Iran’s Foreign Ministry says no U.S.-Iran negotiations are taking place and no meetings are scheduled.
Source: Reuters ↗4
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Donald TrumpWIN CLAIM #48 / 52
Another “Very Soon” Hormuz Deal
Trump says the United States had an “all-day negotiation,” describes the discussions as “very good,” and says the Strait of Hormuz “is going to be open very soon.” Reuters reports Iran had denied Trump’s assertion that U.S.-Iran talks were underway, while sources involved in the Oman track say important details remain unresolved and push back on claims that a reopening deal is imminent.
Source: Reuters ↗6
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Abbas Araqchi / Iran
Iran: We’re Not Negotiating
Iran’s foreign minister says there are no formal negotiations with the United States and that direct talks will not happen while Washington is violating the June interim agreement. He says an Iran-Oman shipping-lane arrangement is nearing completion, but it would not by itself reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
Source: Reuters ↗10
United States and Iran
The “Imminent Deal” Gets Farther Away
Iran ties reopening Hormuz to additional U.S. concessions including sanctions relief, ending the blockade and compensation for war damage. Trump rejects Iran’s reparations demand and counters that Iran should compensate Americans killed or wounded in attacks he attributes to Tehran, adding competing demands to an already unresolved deal.
Source: Reuters / Associated Press ↗11
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Shipping conditions
HORMUZ: NEAR STANDSTILL
Transit through the Strait of Hormuz falls to a near standstill after two more vessels are attacked. Reuters reports only a handful of visible crossings, nowhere near the more than 130 ships per day that used the strait before the war.
Source: Reuters ↗15
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United States and Iran
60-DAY WINDOW EXPIRES — NO FINAL DEAL
Sixty days after the June 17 MOU, there is no final agreement. The MOU had aimed to produce a final deal within 60 days, but the ceasefire had already broken down and diplomacy remained stalled.
Source: Reuters ↗17
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Iran
Iran: Hormuz Stays Shut
Iran says the Strait of Hormuz will remain shut until the United States meets conditions Tehran says were part of the June interim agreement, including lifting the blockade and oil sanctions, releasing frozen assets and ending military threats.
Source: Reuters ↗19
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Donald TrumpWIN CLAIM #49 / 52
“IRAN IS COMPLETELY COLLAPSING!!!”
“IRAN IS COMPLETELY COLLAPSING!!!”“We’re winning against EVERYONE, including Iran.”Iran is in an “Economic and Military Death Spiral.”
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Donald TrumpWIN CLAIM #50 / 52
“MISSION ACCOMPLISHED 2026”
Trump posts a military-themed image explicitly reading “MISSION ACCOMPLISHED 2026.”
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Associated Press assessment
Six Months Later: Still No Off-Ramp
Six months into the war, AP reports no clear end in sight. The June MOU has stalled, negotiations remain stuck, Iran still retains military capabilities and the Strait of Hormuz has become a central unresolved objective despite substantial U.S. tactical successes.
Source: Associated Press ↗28
White HouseWIN CLAIM #51 / 52
“AMERICA CONTROLS THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ”
The White House publishes “President Trump Was Right: America Controls the Strait of Hormuz,” repeating Trump’s claims of “total control” and that the Strait is open, while acknowledging the U.S. blockade of Iran remains in force.
Source: White House release ↗29
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U.S. Central Command
U.S. STRIKES IRAN AGAIN
U.S. forces attack two Iranian launchers on Larak Island after observing Revolutionary Guard forces preparing rockets carrying sea mines for the Strait of Hormuz. Reuters describes the strikes as the first known U.S. military attacks inside Iran since late July.
Source: Reuters ↗Iran / Jordan
Iran Retaliates With Ballistic Missiles
Iran retaliates for the Larak strike by launching ballistic missiles at two U.S. bases in Jordan. Jordan says it intercepted eight missiles that entered its airspace.
Source: Reuters ↗31
United States and Iran
THE STRAIT ERUPTS AGAIN
The United States and Iran are again exchanging military attacks around the Strait of Hormuz. Reuters reports U.S. strikes on Larak, Iranian missile retaliation and visible commodity-vessel traffic at only about five ships per day over the weekend.
Source: Reuters ↗Donald TrumpWIN CLAIM #52 / 52
“TOTALLY DEFEATED MILITARILY”
“They’re totally defeated militarily.”
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Donald Trump / Reuters verification
THE ATTACK THAT DIDN’T HAPPEN
Trump posts that Iran’s Kharg Island is being “blown to smithereens” alongside a dramatic video. Reuters finds no other evidence that Kharg was under attack and determines the accompanying video was most likely synthetically generated.
Source: Reuters ↗September 2026
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